HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Belmont ParkSaturday 4 July 2026

Belmont Park R1

14:39MC Polytrack Plate
1300mOpenRail: +5mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.92top 3
Ranked 1st
1. In Good Nicc
Clint Johnston-Porter (7)
Ranked 2nd
2. Optimus Prime
William Pike (4)
Ranked 3rd
3. Harbour Rise
Holly Watson (10)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
1 In Good Nicc(7)
5 Countersunk(9)
Midfield4
settle 7–10
7 Ace Queen Suited(1)
2 Optimus Prime(4)
10 Apollo Storm(5)
3 Harbour Rise(10)
On-pace2
settle 3–6
4 Eddietemple(2)
8 Lucy Red(6)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
6 Magic Swoop(3)
9 Blue Tang(8)

Historical overview

Across the 29 sampled runnings of 1300m at Belmont Park: On-pace (settle 4–6) — 10 of 29 winners (34.5% of winners, 11.5% strike, 1.02 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 11 of 29 winners (37.9% of winners, 7.9% strike, 0.65 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 3 from 7 (42.9% strike, 0.76 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 24.1% of winners.

Historical leans

  • On-pace (settle 4–6) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1300m · 29 races (29 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1131034.5%8.8%0.81
Middle (5–9)1401137.9%7.9%0.65
Wide (10+)80827.6%10%1.39

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)87931%10.3%0.77
On-pace (4–6)871034.5%11.5%1.02
Midfield (7–10)104827.6%7.7%0.79
Backmarkers (11+)5426.9%3.7%0.61
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7310.3%42.9%0.76
Pop ($2–5)481344.8%27.1%0.95
Mid ($5–10)61620.7%9.8%0.74
Roughie (>$10)217724.1%3.2%0.75