HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← RosehillSaturday 4 July 2026

Rosehill R5

13:25Find Your Stakes Winner @ The Chase (Bm72)
1300mBenchmark 72Rail: 1mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.05top 3
Ranked 1st
9. Gorgeous
Tim Clark (2)
Ranked 2nd
4. Hello Captain
Siena Grima (6)
Ranked 3rd
10. Nandina
Kerrin Mc Evoy (5)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers1
settle 11+
5 Sequista(7)
Midfield3
settle 7–10
2 Cheeky Smirk(1)
9 Gorgeous(2)
10 Nandina(5)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
4 Hello Captain(6)
8 Attractiveness(8)
3 Crossbow(10)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
11 Alphard(3)
6 Pimlico(4)
7 Viewpoint(9)

Historical overview

Across the 27 sampled runnings of 1300m at Rosehill: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 15 of 27 winners (55.6% of winners, 18.5% strike, 1.2 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 10 of 27 winners (37.0% of winners, 10.3% strike, 0.84 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 1 from 2 (50.0% strike, 0.74 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 7.4% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1300m · 27 races (27 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)971037%10.3%0.84
Middle (5–9)1131037%8.8%0.72
Wide (10+)69725.9%10.1%1.11

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)811555.6%18.5%1.20
On-pace (4–6)79414.8%5.1%0.45
Midfield (7–10)85518.5%5.9%0.61
Backmarkers (11+)34311.1%8.8%1.26

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)213.7%50%0.74
Pop ($2–5)491970.4%38.8%1.40
Mid ($5–10)72518.5%6.9%0.52
Roughie (>$10)15627.4%1.3%0.27