HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← RosehillSaturday 4 July 2026

Rosehill R6

14:00Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines (Bm78)
1100mBenchmark 78Rail: 1mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.26top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Shropshire Lad
Reece Jones (5)
Ranked 2nd
5. Polyglot
Tim Clark (6)
Ranked 3rd
9. Formal
Braith Nock (4)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers1
settle 11+
3 Shropshire Lad(5)
Midfield5
settle 7–10
10 Century Song(3)
5 Polyglot(6)
1 Tristate(8)
4 Harry Got Styles(8)
8 Aleppo Pine(9)
On-pace4
settle 3–6
12 Sneaky Pee Cee(2)
2 Just Too Fly(7)
11 Chemtrail(10)
7 Columbia Blue(11)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
6 Teylu(1)
9 Formal(4)

Historical overview

Across the 44 sampled runnings of 1100m at Rosehill: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 20 of 44 winners (45.5% of winners, 15.2% strike, 0.92 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 25 of 44 winners (56.8% of winners, 15.2% strike, 1.07 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 3 from 8 (37.5% strike, 0.68 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 27.3% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 44 races (44 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1652556.8%15.2%1.07
Middle (5–9)1771738.6%9.6%0.75
Wide (10+)6324.5%3.2%0.35

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1322045.5%15.2%0.92
On-pace (4–6)1301534.1%11.5%0.88
Midfield (7–10)115715.9%6.1%0.64
Backmarkers (11+)2624.5%7.7%1.17
Unknown200%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)836.8%37.5%0.68
Pop ($2–5)911943.2%20.9%0.75
Mid ($5–10)871022.7%11.5%0.85
Roughie (>$10)2191227.3%5.5%1.20