HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← WaverleySaturday 4 July 2026

Waverley R8

13:20The Mad Butcher - Wanganui (Bm65)
1650mBenchmark 65Rail: TrueEarly preview · published 3 July 14:13 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:13 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.7top 3
Ranked 1st
2. Can Do
Jonathan Riddell (6)
Ranked 2nd
11. Berry Brown
Rihaan Goyaram (8)
Ranked 3rd
4. Malachy
Chris Dell (10)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers3
settle 11+
5 Mr Marigold(4)
16 Crafty Colin(14)
9 Pinker(15)
Midfield9
settle 7–10
6 The Black Prince(1)
12 Fashion Savvy(2)
17 Our Giulia(3)
2 Can Do(6)
4 Malachy(10)
19 Lady Anglesea(11)
1 Dubai's Potiki(12)
13 Knickerless(13)
14 Weownaranaway(17)
On-pace4
settle 3–6
18 Rich Attitude(4)
10 Summer Breeze(5)
7 Willoughby White(7)
8 Horonuku(9)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
11 Berry Brown(8)
3 Another Won't Hurt(16)

Historical overview

Across the 17 sampled runnings of 1650m at Waverley: Unknown — 15 of 17 winners (88.2% of winners, 9.6% strike, 0.84 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 8 of 17 winners (47.1% of winners, 12.9% strike, 1.07 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 1 from 1 (100.0% strike, 1.8 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 29.4% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1650m · 17 races (17 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)62847.1%12.9%1.07
Middle (5–9)79847.1%10.1%0.83
Wide (10+)3515.9%2.9%0.32

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)600%0%0.00
On-pace (4–6)615.9%16.7%0.95
Midfield (7–10)715.9%14.3%2.00
Backmarkers (11+)100%0%0.00
Unknown1561588.2%9.6%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)115.9%100%1.80
Pop ($2–5)29741.2%24.1%0.86
Mid ($5–10)43423.5%9.3%0.63
Roughie (>$10)103529.4%4.9%0.94