HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← HobartSunday 5 July 2026

Hobart R1

11:04Mingari + Co Plate (C1)
2100mClass 1Rail: +9m
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.33top 3
Ranked 1st
6. Them's The Breaks
Erica Byrne Burke (5)
Ranked 2nd
2. Northern Child
Anthony Darmanin (6)
Ranked 3rd
5. Lyco Reco
Kirra-Lee Lane (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield4
settle 7–10
3 Alpine Drift(2)
7 Wet 'n' Dry(3)
6 Them's The Breaks(5)
9 Littlemissallsorts(7)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
5 Lyco Reco(1)
8 Wholesome(4)
4 Last Tremble(8)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
2 Northern Child(6)
1 Beau Warrior(9)

Historical overview

Across the 11 sampled runnings of 2100m at Hobart: On-pace (settle 4–6) — 6 of 11 winners (54.5% of winners, 22.2% strike, 1.57 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 6 of 11 winners (54.5% of winners, 13.3% strike, 0.9 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 0 from 1 (0.0% strike, 0.0 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 9.1% of winners.

Historical leans

  • On-pace (settle 4–6) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
2100m · 11 races (11 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)42436.4%9.5%0.68
Middle (5–9)45654.5%13.3%0.90
Wide (10+)819.1%12.5%1.11

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2719.1%3.7%0.21
On-pace (4–6)27654.5%22.2%1.57
Midfield (7–10)22218.2%9.1%0.79
Backmarkers (11+)100%0%0.00
Unknown18218.2%11.1%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)100%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)26654.5%23.1%0.88
Mid ($5–10)30436.4%13.3%1.00
Roughie (>$10)3819.1%2.6%0.51