HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← HobartSunday 5 July 2026

Hobart R2

11:40Aviso TAS Insurance Brokers Mdn Plate
1100mMaidenRail: +9m
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.98top 3
Ranked 1st
6. Upheaval
Kelvin Sanderson (9)
Ranked 2nd
3. Savage River
Sam Kennedy (7)
Ranked 3rd
1. Geegees Avalanche
Erica Byrne Burke (10)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data2
no recent settle
7 Windara Rock It(2)
1 Geegees Avalanche(10)
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
10 Sh'bourne Rising(3)
9 Roland View(4)
Midfield0
settle 7–10
—
On-pace5
settle 3–6
4 Spark Of Fire(1)
2 Midway Point(6)
3 Savage River(7)
8 Francium(8)
6 Upheaval(9)
Leaders1
pushing for the lead
5 The Big Fella(5)

Historical overview

Across the 31 sampled runnings of 1100m at Hobart: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 11 of 31 winners (35.5% of winners, 14.1% strike, 0.94 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 16 of 31 winners (51.6% of winners, 11.7% strike, 0.91 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1100m · +9m ±1m, 8 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 3 of 8 winners (37.5% of winners, 12.5% strike, 0.88 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 5 from 7 (71.4% strike, 1.03 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 9.7% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 31 races (31 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1161341.9%11.2%0.87
Middle (5–9)1371651.6%11.7%0.91
Wide (10+)6026.5%3.3%0.36

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)781135.5%14.1%0.94
On-pace (4–6)78929%11.5%0.81
Midfield (7–10)78619.4%7.7%0.74
Backmarkers (11+)2800%0%0.00
Unknown51516.1%9.8%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7516.1%71.4%1.03
Pop ($2–5)621548.4%24.2%0.84
Mid ($5–10)57825.8%14%1.10
Roughie (>$10)18739.7%1.6%0.37