HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← HobartSunday 5 July 2026

Hobart R5

13:32Alexandra Plate
1200mOpenRail: +9m
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.04top 3
Ranked 1st
10. Momentslikethese
Anthony Darmanin (11)
Ranked 2nd
4. Valley Star
Kirra-Lee Lane (7)
Ranked 3rd
8. Buzzoffski
Bree Temple (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data5
no recent settle
1 Chumbawamba(2)
3 Onyx Charm(3)
11 Romantic Eye(4)
6 Zumumba(5)
9 Lucky Lipstick(12)
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield1
settle 7–10
7 All Intrique(6)
On-pace4
settle 3–6
4 Valley Star(7)
12 Too Poetic(8)
2 Just Begun(10)
10 Momentslikethese(11)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
8 Buzzoffski(1)
5 Zodiac Rising(9)

Historical overview

Across the 63 sampled runnings of 1200m at Hobart: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 25 of 63 winners (39.7% of winners, 16.2% strike, 1.06 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 30 of 63 winners (47.6% of winners, 10.8% strike, 0.9 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1200m · +9m ±1m, 17 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 7 of 17 winners (41.2% of winners, 15.2% strike, 1.2 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 7 from 15 (46.7% strike, 0.76 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 20.6% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 63 races (63 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2382031.7%8.4%0.67
Middle (5–9)2783047.6%10.8%0.90
Wide (10+)1431320.6%9.1%0.94

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1542539.7%16.2%1.06
On-pace (4–6)1511625.4%10.6%0.84
Midfield (7–10)164812.7%4.9%0.56
Backmarkers (11+)7923.2%2.5%0.38
Unknown1111219%10.8%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)15711.1%46.7%0.76
Pop ($2–5)1162539.7%21.6%0.78
Mid ($5–10)1371828.6%13.1%0.99
Roughie (>$10)3911320.6%3.3%0.75