HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← HobartSunday 5 July 2026

Hobart R4

12:52Olive Tree Catering Hcp (C1)
1410mClass 1Rail: +9m
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.73top 3
Ranked 1st
6. Nandi Clan
Erica Byrne Burke (7)
Ranked 2nd
1. Fuel On The Fire
Anthony Darmanin (2)
Ranked 3rd
2. Sh'bourne Power
Kirra-Lee Lane (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield6
settle 7–10
2 Sh'bourne Power(1)
7 Nataldi(4)
9 Golden Sweet Heart(5)
5 Alpine Ruby(6)
6 Nandi Clan(7)
4 The Little Bay(8)
On-pace2
settle 3–6
1 Fuel On The Fire(2)
8 Windara Wolf(3)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—

Historical overview

Across the 59 sampled runnings of 1410m at Hobart: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 17 of 59 winners (28.8% of winners, 13.2% strike, 0.88 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 27 of 59 winners (45.8% of winners, 11.9% strike, 0.83 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1410m · +9m ±1m, 11 races): On-pace (settle 4–6) — 4 of 11 winners (36.4% of winners, 14.8% strike, 1.18 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 2 from 8 (25.0% strike, 0.41 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 11.9% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1410m · 59 races (59 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2272745.8%11.9%0.83
Middle (5–9)2432237.3%9.1%0.75
Wide (10+)1001016.9%10%0.97

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1291728.8%13.2%0.88
On-pace (4–6)1291627.1%12.4%0.76
Midfield (7–10)120915.3%7.5%0.83
Backmarkers (11+)2411.7%4.2%0.94
Unknown1681627.1%9.5%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)823.4%25%0.41
Pop ($2–5)1133254.2%28.3%0.95
Mid ($5–10)1641830.5%11%0.83
Roughie (>$10)285711.9%2.5%0.59