HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← TownsvilleSunday 5 July 2026

Townsville R3

13:49Triple M Townsville Hcp (C3)
1609mClass 3Rail: +4m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.28top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Bluebird Bay
Ryan Wiggins (10)
Ranked 2nd
9. Hurricane Rosie
Lacey Morrison (6)
Ranked 3rd
4. Rock The Sunrise
Aidan Holt (7)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers3
settle 11+
7 Banxi(1)
14 Khamis(3)
12 Betta Al(5)
Midfield5
settle 7–10
5 Blackthorn(2)
11 Convo(8)
8 The Honey Badger(9)
10 Eclipsion(11)
1 Ready Tiger(12)
On-pace5
settle 3–6
2 First Man(1)
9 Hurricane Rosie(6)
4 Rock The Sunrise(7)
3 Bluebird Bay(10)
13 Beta Better(13)
Leaders1
pushing for the lead
6 Lone Force(4)

Historical overview

Across the 32 sampled runnings of 1609m at Townsville: Midfield (settle 7–10) — 9 of 32 winners (28.1% of winners, 13.4% strike, 1.12 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 15 of 32 winners (46.9% of winners, 10.9% strike, 1.02 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1609m · +4m ±1m, 12 races): Midfield (settle 7–10) — 5 of 12 winners (41.7% of winners, 19.2% strike, 1.2 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 5 from 10 (50.0% strike, 0.88 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 6.2% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Midfield (settle 7–10) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1609m · 32 races (32 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1261443.8%11.1%0.70
Middle (5–9)1371546.9%10.9%1.02
Wide (10+)4339.4%7%0.70

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)72928.1%12.5%0.92
On-pace (4–6)72618.8%8.3%0.59
Midfield (7–10)67928.1%13.4%1.12
Backmarkers (11+)2000%0%0.00
Unknown75825%10.7%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10515.6%50%0.88
Pop ($2–5)581340.6%22.4%0.82
Mid ($5–10)761237.5%15.8%1.16
Roughie (>$10)16226.2%1.2%0.27