HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← TownsvilleSunday 5 July 2026

Townsville R5

15:04The Ville Chairman's Sprint Hcp
1200mOpenRail: +4m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.9top 3
Ranked 1st
4. Lean Eagle
Lacey Morrison (7)
Ranked 2nd
6. Tambo's Justice
Ashley Butler (2)
Ranked 3rd
5. Russian Mint
Ben Kennedy (3)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield4
settle 7–10
1 Speed Legend(1)
4 Lean Eagle(7)
7 Outsmarted(8)
8 Moegreen(9)
On-pace2
settle 3–6
3 Hellish(5)
2 Valenki(6)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
6 Tambo's Justice(2)
5 Russian Mint(3)
9 From This Moment(4)

Historical overview

Across the 77 sampled runnings of 1200m at Townsville: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 28 of 77 winners (36.4% of winners, 14.8% strike, 0.96 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 37 of 77 winners (48.1% of winners, 12.5% strike, 0.89 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1200m · +4m ±1m, 26 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 12 of 26 winners (46.2% of winners, 15.4% strike, 1.03 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 11 from 20 (55.0% strike, 0.91 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 11.7% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 77 races (77 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2973748.1%12.5%0.89
Middle (5–9)3553241.6%9%0.86
Wide (10+)156810.4%5.1%0.51

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1892836.4%14.8%0.96
On-pace (4–6)1852228.6%11.9%0.92
Midfield (7–10)2121215.6%5.7%0.62
Backmarkers (11+)7211.3%1.4%0.23
Unknown1501418.2%9.3%0.80

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)201114.3%55%0.91
Pop ($2–5)1454051.9%27.6%1.00
Mid ($5–10)1781722.1%9.6%0.71
Roughie (>$10)465911.7%1.9%0.51