HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← TownsvilleSunday 5 July 2026

Townsville R8

17:05Cowboys Leagues Club (Bm60)
1300mBenchmark 60Rail: +4m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.54top 3
Ranked 1st
4. Ellis Beach
Aidan Holt (6)
Ranked 2nd
5. Irresistible Force
Lauren Guernier (5)
Ranked 3rd
6. Whirlwind
Fiona Sandkuhl (4)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield7
settle 7–10
14 Savee(2)
8 Intruder(3)
6 Whirlwind(4)
5 Irresistible Force(5)
2 Carpaccio(7)
7 The Hairdresser(9)
12 Lazenby(12)
On-pace6
settle 3–6
9 Talons(1)
4 Ellis Beach(6)
13 Skogafoss(8)
3 Eagle Warrior(10)
16 Fly Fifer(11)
15 Superstitions(13)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—

Historical overview

Across the 16 sampled runnings of 1300m at Townsville: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 16 winners (37.5% of winners, 15.4% strike, 1.04 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 6 of 16 winners (37.5% of winners, 8.5% strike, 1.01 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 2 from 4 (50.0% strike, 0.92 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 25.0% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1300m · 16 races (16 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)62637.5%9.7%0.69
Middle (5–9)71637.5%8.5%1.01
Wide (10+)47425%8.5%0.80

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)39637.5%15.4%1.04
On-pace (4–6)38425%10.5%0.91
Midfield (7–10)44212.5%4.5%0.49
Backmarkers (11+)2716.2%3.7%0.61
Unknown32318.8%9.4%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)4212.5%50%0.92
Pop ($2–5)30637.5%20%0.73
Mid ($5–10)39425%10.3%0.77
Roughie (>$10)107425%3.7%0.99