HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← TownsvilleSunday 5 July 2026

Townsville R4

14:24Channel Seven Hcp (55)
1000mRestricted 55Rail: +4m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.04top 3
Ranked 1st
1. Storm Capital
Aidan Holt (1)
Ranked 2nd
3. Breeches
Ryan Wiggins (7)
Ranked 3rd
8. Willingale
Fiona Sandkuhl (3)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
10 Extra Free(8)
12 Our Folly(10)
Midfield5
settle 7–10
1 Storm Capital(1)
2 Laser Beam(2)
13 Wired For Fun(4)
7 Pontius(5)
9 Mr Sugar Daddy(11)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
3 Breeches(7)
14 Diamond Lucy(9)
11 Fake(13)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
8 Willingale(3)
5 Hot Torque Invegas(6)
6 Isle Ornsay(12)

Historical overview

Across the 94 sampled runnings of 1000m at Townsville: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 48 of 94 winners (50.5% of winners, 20.1% strike, 1.15 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 44 of 94 winners (46.3% of winners, 10.7% strike, 0.87 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1000m · +4m ±1m, 30 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 18 of 30 winners (58.1% of winners, 20.2% strike, 1.15 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 15 from 26 (57.7% strike, 0.93 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 17.9% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 94 races (95 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3673738.9%10.1%0.74
Middle (5–9)4134446.3%10.7%0.87
Wide (10+)1591414.7%8.8%1.01

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2394850.5%20.1%1.15
On-pace (4–6)2382122.1%8.8%0.66
Midfield (7–10)2331111.6%4.7%0.59
Backmarkers (11+)7411.1%1.4%0.19
Unknown1551414.7%9%0.80

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)261515.8%57.7%0.93
Pop ($2–5)1744850.5%27.6%0.92
Mid ($5–10)1961515.8%7.7%0.58
Roughie (>$10)5431717.9%3.1%0.83