Canterbury R1

12:50Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines Mdn Hcp
1100mMaidenRail: +6m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines Mdn Hcpa 1100m maiden at Canterbury, jumping at 12:50 on ground, rail +6m. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Canterbury has staged 36 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 21 of 36 (58.3% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 15 of 36 (41.7% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (3 from 62).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 19 of 36 (52.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 48 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers 12 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.61 (1 from 5).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 1.27 (7 from 27); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: edge tilts to Roughie (>$10) — A/E 1.56 (3 from 43); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Keagan Latham: 23 from 132 (17.4%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Written Redemption here.
  • Trainer M, W & J Hawkes: 20 from 98 (20.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Churchillian here.
  • Trainer G Waterhouse & A Bott: 32 from 199 (16.1%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #6 Farfetched here.
  • Jockey Mollie Fitzgerald is 4 from 27 at today’s meeting profile (14.8% strike, A/E 1.34) and has #10 Ballet Encore here.
  • Jockey Tyler Schiller is 9 from 54 at today’s meeting profile (16.7% strike, A/E 1.22) and has #1 Churchillian here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 36 races (36 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1342158.3%15.7%0.96
Middle (5–9)1351130.6%8.1%0.64
Wide (10+)29411.1%13.8%1.12

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)901541.7%16.7%0.92
On-pace (4–6)891233.3%13.5%0.94
Midfield (7–10)6238.3%4.8%0.53
Backmarkers (11+)900%0%0.00
Unknown48616.7%12.5%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)612.8%16.7%0.30
Pop ($2–5)791952.8%24.1%0.87
Mid ($5–10)821130.6%13.4%0.97
Roughie (>$10)131513.9%3.8%0.82

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.