Headwater @ Vinery Stud Hcp — a 1200m open at Canterbury, jumping at 13:25 on — ground, rail +6m. 13 runners engaged.
At the trip
Canterbury has staged 19 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 19 (52.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 19 (47.4% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.27 (1 from 37).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 8 of 19 (42.1% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.60 (2 from 70).
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 30 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 4 of the 5 winners (4 from 15 runners, A/E 1.38) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Together, Siena Grima × C J Waller are 16 from 76 (21.1%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #4 Sanctum here.
- Jockey L P Beuzelin: 5 from 32 (15.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #2 Hostwin King here.
- Jockey Keagan Latham: 23 from 132 (17.4%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Hitch here.
- Trainer Michael Freedman: 25 from 146 (17.1%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #9 Hitch here.
- Trainer G Ryan & S Alexiou: 7 from 37 (18.9%) in the last 30 days — saddles #10 King Of The Top here.
- Jockey Winona Costin is 2 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (11.8% strike, A/E 1.87) and has #7 Elio here.