Canterbury R3

14:00Asahi Super Dry (Bm64)
1200mBenchmark 64Rail: +6m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Asahi Super Dry (Bm64)a 1200m benchmark 64 at Canterbury, jumping at 14:00 on ground, rail +6m. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Canterbury has staged 19 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 19 (52.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 19 (47.4% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.27 (1 from 37).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 8 of 19 (42.1% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.60 (2 from 70).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 30 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 4 of the 5 winners (4 from 15 runners, A/E 1.38) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Siena Grima × C J Waller are 16 from 76 (21.1%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #2 Royal Air Force here.
  • Jockey Keagan Latham: 23 from 132 (17.4%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Pazyryk here.
  • Trainer Michael Freedman: 25 from 146 (17.1%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #9 Pazyryk here.
  • Trainer G Ryan & S Alexiou: 7 from 37 (18.9%) in the last 30 days — saddles #6 Onmalone here.
  • Jockey Kerrin Mc Evoy is 8 from 50 at today’s meeting profile (16.0% strike, A/E 1.28) and has #5 Raskol here.
  • Jockey Tyler Schiller is 9 from 54 at today’s meeting profile (16.7% strike, A/E 1.22) and has #8 Dirtballer here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 19 races (19 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)71947.4%12.7%0.78
Middle (5–9)721052.6%13.9%1.06
Wide (10+)1400%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)45947.4%20%1.02
On-pace (4–6)43526.3%11.6%0.96
Midfield (7–10)3715.3%2.7%0.27
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown30421.1%13.3%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)3315.8%100%1.85
Pop ($2–5)38842.1%21.1%0.72
Mid ($5–10)46631.6%13%0.93
Roughie (>$10)70210.5%2.9%0.60

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.