Northam R1

14:34Afgri Christmas In July – 23 July Mdn
2200mMaidenRail: True
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 8 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Afgri Christmas In July – 23 July Mdna 2200m maiden at Northam, jumping at 14:34 on ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Northam has staged 18 races at 2200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) and Middle (5–9) win the most races here — 9 of 18 each (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 8 of 18 (44.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 8 of 18 (44.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 2 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 2 of the 2 winners (2 from 8 runners, A/E 1.41) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Holly Watson × Mitchell Pateman are 6 from 29 (20.7%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Ignatian here.
  • Jockey William Pike: 57 from 215 (26.5%) in the last 90 days (19 of those in the last 30) — rides #8 Savienne here.
  • Jockey Troy Turner is 9 from 69 at today’s meeting profile (13.0% strike, A/E 1.25) and has #4 Big Man Zor here.
  • Jockey Jefferson Tsang is 6 from 33 at today’s meeting profile (18.2% strike, A/E 1.24) and has #2 Going Hard here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
2200m · 18 races (18 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)70950%12.9%0.89
Middle (5–9)73950%12.3%0.87
Wide (10+)1700%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)54527.8%9.3%0.67
On-pace (4–6)54844.4%14.8%0.99
Midfield (7–10)46527.8%10.9%0.84
Backmarkers (11+)600%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5316.7%60%1.05
Pop ($2–5)37844.4%21.6%0.76
Mid ($5–10)34422.2%11.8%0.88
Roughie (>$10)84316.7%3.6%0.77

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.