Caulfield R3

13:10Sportsbet Jockey Watch Hcp
1400mOpenRail: Out 6m Entire Circuit
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Sportsbet Jockey Watch Hcpa 1400m open at Caulfield, jumping at 13:10 on ground, rail out 6m entire circuit. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Caulfield has staged 50 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 27 of 50 (54.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.20).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 21 of 50 (42.0% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.44 (7 from 154).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 25 of 50 (50.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (7 from 291).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers only 6 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Inside (1–4) accounted for 4 of the 6 winners (4 from 24 runners, A/E 1.48) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Craig Williams × Ben, Will & Jd Hayes are 6 from 10 (60.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #5 Cruiserweight here.
  • Together, Tala Hutchinson × D Clarken & O Macgillivray are 8 from 23 (34.8%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #1 Like A Drifter here.
  • Jockey Jabez Johnstone: 22 from 109 (20.2%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — rides #6 Glam Award here.
  • Jockey Jackson Radley: 11 from 57 (19.3%) in the last 30 days — rides #8 King Maywin here.
  • Trainer G Eurell: 9 from 35 (25.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #8 King Maywin here.
  • Trainer C Maher: 28 from 169 (16.6%) in the last 30 days — saddles #6 Glam Award, #7 Jenni Gone Bonkers here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 50 races (50 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1842754%14.7%1.20
Middle (5–9)2111530%7.1%0.61
Wide (10+)112816%7.1%0.68

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1502142%14%1.01
On-pace (4–6)1491938%12.8%1.00
Midfield (7–10)154714%4.5%0.44
Backmarkers (11+)5336%5.7%0.94
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)848%50%0.86
Pop ($2–5)952550%26.3%0.93
Mid ($5–10)1131428%12.4%0.92
Roughie (>$10)291714%2.4%0.57

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.