Caulfield R7

15:40Sportsbet Sir John Monash Stakes
1100mGroup 3Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Sportsbet Sir John Monash Stakesa 1100m group 3 at Caulfield, jumping at 15:40 on ground, rail out 6m entire circuit. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Caulfield has staged 36 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 17 of 36 (47.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 4–6 win the most races here — 13 of 36 each (36.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 15 of 36 (41.7% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.58 (5 from 181).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers only 3 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Mid ($5–10) accounted for 3 of the 3 winners (3 from 10 runners, A/E 2.29) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Thomas Stockdale × C Maher are 5 from 27 (18.5%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #1 Recommendation here.
  • Jockey Craig Williams: 24 from 153 (15.7%) in the last 90 days (10 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Bellatrix Star here.
  • Trainer Nick Ryan: 15 from 77 (19.5%) in the last 90 days — saddles #8 Winnasedge here.
  • Trainer G M Begg: 19 from 106 (17.9%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — saddles #10 Miraval Rose here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 36 races (36 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1361438.9%10.3%0.75
Middle (5–9)1491747.2%11.4%1.01
Wide (10+)71513.9%7%0.67

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1081336.1%12%0.78
On-pace (4–6)1071336.1%12.1%0.95
Midfield (7–10)111822.2%7.2%0.77
Backmarkers (11+)3025.6%6.7%0.95

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)325.6%66.7%1.24
Pop ($2–5)641541.7%23.4%0.82
Mid ($5–10)1081438.9%13%0.98
Roughie (>$10)181513.9%2.8%0.58

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.