Caulfield R8

16:15Sportsbet Fixed Odds Exotics (Bm100)
1400mBenchmark 100Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Sportsbet Fixed Odds Exotics (Bm100)a 1400m benchmark 100 at Caulfield, jumping at 16:15 on ground, rail out 6m entire circuit. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Caulfield has staged 50 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 27 of 50 (54.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.20).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 21 of 50 (42.0% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.44 (7 from 154).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 25 of 50 (50.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (7 from 291).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers only 6 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Inside (1–4) accounted for 4 of the 6 winners (4 from 24 runners, A/E 1.48) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Jabez Johnstone × C Maher are 16 from 64 (25.0%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #10 Ten Commandments here.
  • Together, Jackson Radley × Ben, Will & Jd Hayes are 10 from 44 (22.7%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #3 Coeur Volante here.
  • Jockey Craig Williams: 24 from 153 (15.7%) in the last 90 days (10 of those in the last 30) — rides #4 Magnaspin here.
  • Trainer G M Begg: 19 from 106 (17.9%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — saddles #12 Angland here.
  • Jockey Jett Stanley is 5 from 36 at today’s meeting profile (13.9% strike, A/E 2.10) and has #6 Big Swinger here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 50 races (50 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1842754%14.7%1.20
Middle (5–9)2111530%7.1%0.61
Wide (10+)112816%7.1%0.68

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1502142%14%1.01
On-pace (4–6)1491938%12.8%1.00
Midfield (7–10)154714%4.5%0.44
Backmarkers (11+)5336%5.7%0.94
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)848%50%0.86
Pop ($2–5)952550%26.3%0.93
Mid ($5–10)1131428%12.4%0.92
Roughie (>$10)291714%2.4%0.57

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.