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← CaulfieldSaturday 11 July 2026

Caulfield R5

14:20Sportsbet Blackbook (Bm84)
2000mBenchmark 84Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Sportsbet Blackbook (Bm84) — a 2000m benchmark 84 at Caulfield, jumping at 14:20 on — ground, rail out 6m entire circuit. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Caulfield has staged 31 races at 2000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 31 (45.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 14 of 31 (45.2% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.33 (1 from 44).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 31 (45.2% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.46 (4 from 198).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+6m ±1m) covers only 2 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 2 of the 2 winners (2 from 4 runners, A/E 1.64) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Craig Williams: 24 from 153 (15.7%) in the last 90 days (10 of those in the last 30) — rides #12 Amleto here.
  • Jockey Jackson Radley: 11 from 57 (19.3%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Belle Savoir here.
  • Trainer Patrick Payne: 38 from 193 (19.7%) in the last 90 days (16 of those in the last 30) — saddles #6 Stop The Rock here.
  • Trainer Nick Ryan: 15 from 77 (19.5%) in the last 90 days — saddles #10 Belle Savoir here.
  • Jockey Dakotah Keane is 4 from 18 at today’s meeting profile (22.2% strike, A/E 2.00) and has #6 Stop The Rock here.
  • Trainer Ms C Alderson is 2 from 12 at today’s meeting profile (16.7% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #4 Howlin' Rain here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
2000m · 31 races (31 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1161445.2%12.1%0.93
Middle (5–9)1281032.3%7.8%0.69
Wide (10+)82722.6%8.5%0.94

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)901445.2%15.6%0.97
On-pace (4–6)881135.5%12.5%1.07
Midfield (7–10)91412.9%4.4%0.50
Backmarkers (11+)4413.2%2.3%0.33
Unknown1313.2%7.7%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7516.1%71.4%1.22
Pop ($2–5)541445.2%25.9%0.92
Mid ($5–10)67825.8%11.9%0.89
Roughie (>$10)198412.9%2%0.46

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.