Ruakaka R4

11:39ITM/GIB 2yo
1200mOpenRail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

ITM/GIB 2yoa 1200m open at Ruakaka, jumping at 11:39 on ground, rail true. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ruakaka has staged 14 races at 1200m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 7 of 14 (50.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.31).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 6 of 14 (42.9% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.77).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 6 of 14 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 74 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 5 of the 7 winners (5 from 27 runners, A/E 1.91) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Michael Mc Nab: 26 from 144 (18.1%) in the last 90 days — rides #2 Pellargo here.
  • Trainer A W Pike: 5 from 30 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #2 Pellargo here.
  • Trainer S Ritchie & C Murray is 6 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (42.9% strike, A/E 1.94) and has #7 Top Marks here.
  • Jockey A Lawson-Carroll is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 1.59) and has #5 Fraudster here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 14 races (14 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)50642.9%12%0.82
Middle (5–9)54750%13%1.31
Wide (10+)4417.1%2.3%0.25

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)21642.9%28.6%1.77
On-pace (4–6)2117.1%4.8%0.43
Midfield (7–10)2300%0%0.00
Backmarkers (11+)900%0%0.00
Unknown74750%9.5%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)200%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)20642.9%30%0.97
Mid ($5–10)40428.6%10%0.72
Roughie (>$10)86428.6%4.7%1.03

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.