Ruakaka R5

12:15Mangawhai ITM Mdn
1600mMaidenRail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Mangawhai ITM Mdna 1600m maiden at Ruakaka, jumping at 12:15 on ground, rail true. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ruakaka has staged 14 races at 1600m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 8 of 14 (57.1% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.25).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 4 of 14 (28.6% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.68).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 8 of 14 (57.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 72 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 8 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.64 (6 from 34).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 11+ — A/E 1.98 (1 from 9); overall it's Settle position 1–3.
  • Market: edge tilts to Roughie (>$10) — A/E 1.07 (3 from 54); overall it's Pop ($2–5).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Michael Mc Nab: 26 from 144 (18.1%) in the last 90 days — rides #1 Malleable here.
  • Trainer Ms J K Mahoney: 5 from 22 (22.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #9 Cheerful Smile, #10 Azamira here.
  • Jockey A Lawson-Carroll is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 1.59) and has #6 Fleetwood here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 14 races (14 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)52428.6%7.7%0.60
Middle (5–9)58857.1%13.8%1.25
Wide (10+)37214.3%5.4%0.54

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)21428.6%19%1.68
On-pace (4–6)21214.3%9.5%0.69
Midfield (7–10)2400%0%0.00
Backmarkers (11+)917.1%11.1%1.98
Unknown72750%9.7%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Pop ($2–5)31857.1%25.8%0.96
Mid ($5–10)27321.4%11.1%0.78
Roughie (>$10)89321.4%3.4%0.65

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.