Troy Blechynden (Bm50+)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Bunbury Fibre Sand
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map points towards a moderate tempo, controlled by a couple of key on-pace runners. There isn't an abundance of high-pressure speed, suggesting the leaders will get a chance to dictate terms, particularly over the 2000m journey.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#9 Heaps Of Moolah is the most probable leader from gate 1. #4 Couldhavebeen will be forced to press forward from the wide draw and will likely look to settle outside the lead or in a forward position one-off the rail.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Sirota is mapped to get the perfect run, either trailing the leader in the box seat or settling one-out, one-back. This is the prime tactical position in the race.
🏃♂️Midfield
The majority of the field will settle here. #1 Metalic Marlin will likely have to drift back from its wide draw to find cover. #2 Sunny Times, #5 Only Us, #6 Ahh Choux, and #7 Ocean Ranger all have profiles that suit a midfield position with cover. #5 and #7 are drawn to save ground on the fence.
🐌Backmarkers
#3 Wicked Cool is the designated closer. Its form is littered with comments about slow starts, and it will almost certainly settle at or near the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play evenly. The primary advantage of inside barriers (#9, #5, #7) is the ability to save ground, which is a significant factor over 2000m. Horses drawn wide (#1, #4) will either have to do more work early to find a position or risk being caught wide without cover, which would be a major disadvantage. The true rail position does not inherently favour a specific running style on this surface.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3, standard for this synthetic surface, ensuring it will play fast and fair. Assuming fine weather, the conditions will not introduce any bias. The race will be a genuine test of ability and stamina on a uniform surface, rather than being influenced by a wet or chopping-out track. Every horse should have its chance if good enough.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Bunbury Fibre Sand track is a synthetic surface that typically provides a fair and consistent racing surface. Over the 2000m distance, there is a long run down the back straight after the start, which allows horses drawn wider, like #4 Couldhavebeen, a fair opportunity to roll forward and find a position without being rushed. The emphasis at this distance will be on stamina and a horse's ability to sustain a long run from the 600m. The race will test which horse can quicken and hold that speed on the long run to the finish.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 50+ Handicap, a lower-grade provincial race. Form can be inconsistent, and tactical decisions can sometimes be unpredictable. However, the established racing patterns of the key speed horses appear reliable. The handicap weight scale sees #1 Metalic Marlin carry the top weight of 60kg, while a horse like #9 Heaps Of Moolah carries only 54kg. This 6kg advantage for the likely leader could be crucial in the final stages of a 2000m contest.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate tempo, with #9 Heaps Of Moolah leading from the inside and #4 Couldhavebeen applying pressure from the outside. This setup should favour horses positioned on-pace or in the forward half of the midfield pack, as they will be able to travel economically and be in a striking position when the pace quickens from the 600m. A moderately run race will make it tactically challenging for the backmarker, #3 Wicked Cool, to make up the necessary ground in the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Sirota From barrier 4, this on-pace runner is mapped to get a perfect, energy-saving run in the box seat or one-one. It has the tactical speed to maintain its position without effort and was good last start sitting on pace over a similar trip. This horse gets every possible favour from the map.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Couldhavebeen While possessing the right racing style, the wide barrier (9) presents a significant hurdle. It will either have to be used up early to cross or risk being caught three-wide without cover for the entire journey, which is a near-impossible task over 2000m. Additionally, #3 Wicked Cool is at a disadvantage due to the likely moderate pace, which will not generate the pressure needed for it to run on effectively from the back.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on runners who can settle in the first half of the field and get an economical run.
- #8 Sirota stands out as the horse with the most favourable tactical map and should be given strong consideration.
- #9 Heaps Of Moolah also benefits from controlling the pace from the inside rail and carrying a light weight, making it a key contender.
- Runners drawn wide who need to press forward, such as #4 Couldhavebeen, or those with significant weight like #1 Metalic Marlin (from a wide gate), face tactical queries and represent a risk.
- The designated backmarker, #3 Wicked Cool, is difficult to recommend, as the predicted race shape is highly unlikely to play to its strengths. Value could be found with a midfield runner like #7 Ocean Ranger, who is drawn to get a soft run on the fence and can be produced late.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Metalic Marlin
Sunny Times
Wicked Cool
Couldhavebeen
Only Us
Ahh Choux
Ocean Ranger
Sirota
Heaps Of Moolah
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