Grafton

TurfRail: + 5 entire—11:45–16:15

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:06 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Meeting overview

Grafton in NSW hosts a country meeting on Turf. The rail is + 5 entire. There are 8 races scheduled from 11:45 to 16:15.

The card

Distances run from 1,015m to 2,230m across the card. The class mix is 2 maidens, 1 benchmark race, and 5 other races. The card leans toward middle-distance races. The feature race of the day is CJM Lawyers Grafton Cup Prelude.

What history says

Over 201 races from 2025-05-09 to 2026-06-06, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.40 A/E, 2.6% strike rate).

Jockey Dylan Turner has 8 runners and a 18.6% local strike rate from 43 runs (1.24 A/E) and Trainer L J Clapham has 2 runners and a 14.3% local strike rate from 28 runs (1.96 A/E) off a small winning sample.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Grafton

201 races · 2057 runners · since 2025-05-09

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

TL J Clapham2 todayA/E 1.96JBrandon Lerena3 todayA/E 1.32TJake Hull2 todayA/E 1.32JOlivia Dalton4 todayA/E 1.26JDylan Turner8 todayA/E 1.24JAnthony Allen3 todayA/E 1.17TWayne S Lawson3 todayA/E 1.03

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	750	82	40.8%	10.9%	0.79
Middle (5–9)	873	90	44.8%	10.3%	0.89
Wide (10+)	434	29	14.4%	6.7%	0.75

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	537	104	51.7%	19.4%	1.12
On-pace (4–6)	535	50	24.9%	9.3%	0.78
Midfield (7–10)	582	21	10.4%	3.6%	0.42
Backmarkers (11+)	153	4	2%	2.6%	0.40
Unknown	250	22	10.9%	8.8%	0.83

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	32	19	9.5%	59.4%	0.96
Pop ($2–5)	400	95	47.3%	23.8%	0.83
Mid ($5–10)	457	53	26.4%	11.6%	0.85
Roughie (>$10)	1168	34	16.9%	2.9%	0.73

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.