Grafton R6

14:55Grafton Sheetmetal John Carlton Cup

1190mOpenRail: + 5 entire

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final

Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.75top 3

Ranked 1st

1. My Mum's Toyboy

Justin P Stanley (6)

Ranked 2nd

13. Count Nicholas

Bella Youngberry (16)

Ranked 3rd

4. Kaizad

Teighan Worsnop (15)

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers1

settle 11+

18Cardsharp(14)

Midfield12

settle 7–10

15Savvyrocker(3)

12Eagle Hawk Star(4)

14Ronny Rock Art(5)

1My Mum's Toyboy(6)

17Atomic Selfie(7)

9Awaygoesthebunny(9)

16Single Touch(10)

7Zaru(11)

10Prancing With Fire(12)

13Count Nicholas(16)

3Tectonic Plate(18)

11Tartaglia(19)

On-pace3

settle 3–6

2Voracious(2)

19Spirits Burn Deep(8)

6Lady Wardell(13)

Leaders3

pushing for the lead

8What A Rush(1)

4Kaizad(15)

5The Wolf(17)

Historical overview

Across the 42 sampled runnings of 1190m at Grafton: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 25 of 42 winners (59.5% of winners, 24.5% strike, 1.39 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 26 of 42 winners (61.9% of winners, 14.2% strike, 1.16 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 5 from 7 (71.4% strike, 1.15 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 16.7% of winners.

Historical leans

Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance

1190m · 42 races (42 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	157	15	35.7%	9.6%	0.71
Middle (5–9)	183	26	61.9%	14.2%	1.16
Wide (10+)	95	1	2.4%	1.1%	0.14

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	102	25	59.5%	24.5%	1.39
On-pace (4–6)	102	4	9.5%	3.9%	0.34
Midfield (7–10)	109	4	9.5%	3.7%	0.44
Backmarkers (11+)	34	1	2.4%	2.9%	0.49
Unknown	88	8	19%	9.1%	0.82

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	7	5	11.9%	71.4%	1.15
Pop ($2–5)	88	21	50%	23.9%	0.83
Mid ($5–10)	84	9	21.4%	10.7%	0.79
Roughie (>$10)	256	7	16.7%	2.7%	0.72