HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← GraftonSunday 5 July 2026

Grafton R1

11:45Dougherty Property Springboard Prelude Mdn Plate
1015mMaidenRail: + 5 entire
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.39top 3
Ranked 1st
16. Flying Scarlett
Bella Youngberry (12)
Ranked 2nd
8. Cascading
Cejay Graham (10)
Ranked 3rd
6. Time Has Come
Ben Looker (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data8
no recent settle
6 Time Has Come(1)
12 Zee Fire(3)
4 Sorta Cool(6)
1 Fierce Fire(7)
10 Magic All Around(8)
5 Stingeri(9)
9 Last Metaphor(11)
2 Prestige Headwater(13)
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield1
settle 7–10
13 Slippin' Away(5)
On-pace2
settle 3–6
8 Cascading(10)
16 Flying Scarlett(12)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
11 Prestige Austria(2)
3 Profit In Paradise(4)
15 Sweet Enchantress(11)

Historical overview

Across the 26 sampled runnings of 1015m at Grafton: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 15 of 26 winners (57.7% of winners, 20.8% strike, 1.07 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 15 of 26 winners (57.7% of winners, 14.6% strike, 0.9 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 6 from 10 (60.0% strike, 0.92 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 11.5% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
1015m · 26 races (26 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1031557.7%14.6%0.90
Middle (5–9)109623.1%5.5%0.55
Wide (10+)35519.2%14.3%1.24

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)721557.7%20.8%1.07
On-pace (4–6)70519.2%7.1%0.60
Midfield (7–10)68415.4%5.9%0.65
Backmarkers (11+)1700%0%0.00
Unknown2027.7%10%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10623.1%60%0.92
Pop ($2–5)431557.7%34.9%1.14
Mid ($5–10)4727.7%4.3%0.30
Roughie (>$10)147311.5%2%0.57