Grafton R3

13:00McKimms Real Estate Grafton Guineas Prelude (Bm66)

1420mBenchmark 66Rail: + 5 entire

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final

Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.87top 3

Ranked 1st

1. Swag

Robbie Dolan (4)

Ranked 2nd

5. Russiantothepost

Tiffani Brooker (5)

Ranked 3rd

2. Clive's Glory

Cejay Graham (7)

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers1

settle 11+

9Crystal Garden(3)

Midfield4

settle 7–10

1Swag(4)

3Need For Spieth(6)

8Virginia Breezes(9)

6Satin And Cash(11)

On-pace4

settle 3–6

10Not So Dubious(1)

11No Woman No Cry(2)

5Russiantothepost(5)

7Rupestris(8)

Leaders2

pushing for the lead

2Clive's Glory(7)

4Permission Denied(10)

Historical overview

Across the 43 sampled runnings of 1420m at Grafton: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 21 of 43 winners (48.8% of winners, 17.9% strike, 1.13 A/E). From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 23 of 43 winners (53.5% of winners, 12.6% strike, 1.12 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 2 from 3 (66.7% strike, 1.17 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 18.6% of winners.

Historical leans

Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance

1420m · 43 races (43 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	156	14	32.6%	9%	0.64
Middle (5–9)	183	23	53.5%	12.6%	1.12
Wide (10+)	109	6	14%	5.5%	0.60

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	117	21	48.8%	17.9%	1.13
On-pace (4–6)	117	13	30.2%	11.1%	0.88
Midfield (7–10)	131	4	9.3%	3.1%	0.36
Backmarkers (11+)	38	1	2.3%	2.6%	0.36
Unknown	45	4	9.3%	8.9%	0.81

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	3	2	4.7%	66.7%	1.17
Pop ($2–5)	92	23	53.5%	25%	0.87
Mid ($5–10)	98	10	23.3%	10.2%	0.75
Roughie (>$10)	255	8	18.6%	3.1%	0.74