HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← ToowoombaFriday 3 July 2026

Toowoomba R2

17:30Neil Mansell Concrete Mdn Hcp
1100mMaidenRail: TrueEarly preview · published 2 July 14:42 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (2 July 14:42 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — will change with final scratchings, jockeys and track conditionEntropy3.42top 3
Ranked 1st
12. Gossamer Glow
Bella Youngberry (7)
Ranked 2nd
4. Spirit Of Riverton
Leslie Tilley (5)
Ranked 3rd
5. Comin'hometoyou
(16)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data3
no recent settle
2 Deejaywip(2)
4 Spirit Of Riverton(5)
8 If You Asked Me To(16)
Backmarkers4
settle 11+
17 Shes A Belle(3)
16 I Am Pietra(6)
10 Divinelle(14)
5 Comin'hometoyou(16)
Midfield7
settle 7–10
19 Gypsy Joy(1)
20 Voltessa(5)
3 Langdown Legacy(8)
6 Whiskey And Wine(10)
21 Tassortium(11)
14 Reign Of Dame(15)
13 Lustful Belle(17)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
22 Run Ziggy Run(4)
18 Bodysnatcher(13)
9 Kaida Odori(18)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
12 Gossamer Glow(7)
7 Hurkle Durkle(9)
11 Dragon Lilly(12)

Historical overview

Across the 36 sampled runnings of 1100m at Toowoomba: Unknown — 17 of 36 winners (45.9% of winners, 12.2% strike, 0.86 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 20 of 36 winners (54.1% of winners, 14.8% strike, 0.94 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1100m · True, 12 races): On-pace (settle 4–6) — 4 of 12 winners (33.3% of winners, 16.7% strike, 1.47 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 4 from 8 (50.0% strike, 0.87 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 16.2% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 36 races (37 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1352054.1%14.8%0.94
Middle (5–9)146616.2%4.1%0.38
Wide (10+)531129.7%20.8%1.63

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)601129.7%18.3%0.97
On-pace (4–6)60821.6%13.3%1.16
Midfield (7–10)5912.7%1.7%0.19
Backmarkers (11+)1600%0%0.00
Unknown1391745.9%12.2%0.86

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)8410.8%50%0.87
Pop ($2–5)802156.8%26.2%0.89
Mid ($5–10)67616.2%9%0.67
Roughie (>$10)179616.2%3.4%0.86