HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← ToowoombaFriday 3 July 2026

Toowoomba R4

18:30Create With Cottee Hcp (C4)
1000mClass 4Rail: TrueEarly preview · published 2 July 14:42 AEST — updated race morning
Races1234567
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (2 July 14:42 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — will change with final scratchings, jockeys and track conditionEntropy2.95top 3
Ranked 1st
4. My Name Is
Leslie Tilley (4)
Ranked 2nd
1. Thundering Soul
(6)
Ranked 3rd
8. Deep Tiara
Georgina Cartwright (8)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield4
settle 7–10
2 North Of Eli(2)
6 Hidden Nugget(3)
9 Starsarise(7)
8 Deep Tiara(8)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
3 Defiant Boom(1)
7 Manpower(5)
1 Thundering Soul(6)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
4 My Name Is(4)
10 Goose Step(9)
5 Charmed Passage(10)

Historical overview

Across the 49 sampled runnings of 1000m at Toowoomba: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 18 of 49 winners (36.7% of winners, 19.4% strike, 0.95 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 35 of 49 winners (71.4% of winners, 19.0% strike, 1.13 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1000m · True, 14 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 14 winners (42.9% of winners, 15.4% strike, 0.76 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 9 from 20 (45.0% strike, 0.74 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 14.3% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 49 races (49 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1843571.4%19%1.13
Middle (5–9)1641020.4%6.1%0.45
Wide (10+)4448.2%9.1%0.78

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)931836.7%19.4%0.95
On-pace (4–6)911020.4%11%0.82
Midfield (7–10)6536.1%4.6%0.50
Backmarkers (11+)400%0%0.00
Unknown1391836.7%12.9%0.85

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)20918.4%45%0.74
Pop ($2–5)932449%25.8%0.86
Mid ($5–10)77918.4%11.7%0.87
Roughie (>$10)202714.3%3.5%0.85