HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← ToowoombaFriday 3 July 2026

Toowoomba R5

19:00Barrier Reef Pools (Bm70)
1300mBenchmark 70Rail: TrueEarly preview · published 2 July 14:42 AEST — updated race morning
Races1234567
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (2 July 14:42 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — will change with final scratchings, jockeys and track conditionEntropy3.5top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Mirra Impact
Gary Geran (4)
Ranked 2nd
1. Warilla Gorilla
Kelsey Lenton (10)
Ranked 3rd
7. Amenophis
Brandon Lerena (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield11
settle 7–10
7 Amenophis(1)
9 Fighting Idol(2)
12 Hoot 'n' Holler(6)
13 Can't Getwhatiwant(8)
18 All Black(9)
16 Data Leak(11)
15 Araminta(12)
2 Whisky Dream(14)
5 Kadall(15)
8 Great Aspirations(16)
10 Ariat(17)
On-pace5
settle 3–6
6 Drang A Tang(3)
4 Pantelone(5)
14 Royal Bombadier(7)
1 Warilla Gorilla(10)
11 Fort William(13)
Leaders1
pushing for the lead
3 Mirra Impact(4)

Historical overview

Across the 65 sampled runnings of 1300m at Toowoomba: Unknown — 21 of 65 winners (32.3% of winners, 10.9% strike, 0.82 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 33 of 65 winners (50.8% of winners, 13.9% strike, 0.9 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1300m · True, 16 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 16 winners (37.5% of winners, 15.4% strike, 1.03 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 2 from 3 (66.7% strike, 1.09 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 18.5% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1300m · 65 races (65 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2373350.8%13.9%0.90
Middle (5–9)2772538.5%9%0.76
Wide (10+)87710.8%8%0.70

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1331827.7%13.5%0.88
On-pace (4–6)1321624.6%12.1%0.87
Midfield (7–10)1411015.4%7.1%0.67
Backmarkers (11+)300%0%0.00
Unknown1922132.3%10.9%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)323.1%66.7%1.09
Pop ($2–5)1503655.4%24%0.83
Mid ($5–10)1481523.1%10.1%0.75
Roughie (>$10)3001218.5%4%0.85