HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← FlemingtonSaturday 4 July 2026

Flemington R5

14:15Santa Ana Lane Sprint Series Final
1200mListedRail: TrueEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.95top 3
Ranked 1st
1. Losesomewinmore
Craig Williams (4)
Ranked 2nd
2. De Bergerac
Daniel Stackhouse (7)
Ranked 3rd
3. Ndola
Jye McNeil (5)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers1
settle 11+
1 Losesomewinmore(4)
Midfield7
settle 7–10
4 Lingani(2)
6 Royal Insignia(3)
3 Ndola(5)
8 Moby Dick(6)
2 De Bergerac(7)
7 Vestas(8)
5 Samangu(9)
On-pace1
settle 3–6
9 Bullets High(1)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—

Historical overview

Across the 29 sampled runnings of 1200m at Flemington: Midfield (settle 7–10) — 11 of 29 winners (37.9% of winners, 11.3% strike, 1.34 A/E). From the gates, Wide (10+) — 10 of 29 winners (34.5% of winners, 9.7% strike, 0.98 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1200m · True, 8 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 4 of 8 winners (50.0% of winners, 16.7% strike, 0.71 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 1 from 4 (25.0% strike, 0.42 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 34.5% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Midfield (settle 7–10) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Wide (10+) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 29 races (29 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)112931%8%0.92
Middle (5–9)1281034.5%7.8%0.70
Wide (10+)1031034.5%9.7%0.98

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)84724.1%8.3%0.60
On-pace (4–6)84724.1%8.3%0.80
Midfield (7–10)971137.9%11.3%1.34
Backmarkers (11+)62310.3%4.8%0.68
Unknown1613.4%6.2%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)413.4%25%0.42
Pop ($2–5)521344.8%25%0.90
Mid ($5–10)55517.2%9.1%0.69
Roughie (>$10)2311034.5%4.3%0.99