Pakenham Synthetic R5

14:55Cameron Industrial Commercial (Bm56)
1600mBenchmark 56Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Cameron Industrial Commercial (Bm56)a 1600m benchmark 56 at Pakenham Synthetic, jumping at 14:55 on ground, rail true. 17 runners engaged.

At the trip

Pakenham Synthetic has staged 25 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 13 of 25 (52.0% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.58 (6 from 85).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 7 of 25 (28.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 12 of 25 (48.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.29).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 83 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 23 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.03 (12 from 96).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 11+ — A/E 1.52 (1 from 8); overall it's Settle position 1–3.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.35 (12 from 64).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Billy Egan: 39 from 215 (18.1%) in the last 90 days (16 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Cosmic here.
  • Trainer Saab Hasan: 5 from 29 (17.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #17 Burning Sensation here.
  • Trainer Reece Goodwin: 14 from 92 (15.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #6 Two Sigma, #10 She's A Con, #11 Queen Beira here.
  • Jockey Jamie Mott is 9 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (28.1% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #11 Queen Beira here.
  • Jockey Patrick Moloney is 4 from 31 at today’s meeting profile (12.9% strike, A/E 1.42) and has #1 Dr Davinci here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 25 races (25 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)85624%7.1%0.58
Middle (5–9)1041352%12.5%1.00
Wide (10+)69624%8.7%0.84

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)51728%13.7%1.03
On-pace (4–6)51416%7.8%0.61
Midfield (7–10)64520%7.8%0.76
Backmarkers (11+)914%11.1%1.45
Unknown83832%9.6%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)628%33.3%0.56
Pop ($2–5)431040%23.3%0.90
Mid ($5–10)671248%17.9%1.29
Roughie (>$10)14214%0.7%0.15