Pakenham Synthetic R7

16:10Beraldo Coffee (Bm56)
1200mBenchmark 56Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Beraldo Coffee (Bm56)a 1200m benchmark 56 at Pakenham Synthetic, jumping at 16:10 on ground, rail true. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Pakenham Synthetic has staged 20 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 9 of 20 (45.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 6 of 20 (30.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 7 of 20 (35.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 34 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 18 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.04 (9 from 77).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 4–6 — A/E 1.07 (6 from 43); overall it's Settle position 7–10.
  • Market: edge tilts to Roughie (>$10) — A/E 0.93 (5 from 120); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer G Eurell: 7 from 27 (25.9%) in the last 30 days — saddles #10 You Never Can Tell here.
  • Trainer C W McDonald: 9 from 35 (25.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Flying Mean here.
  • Jockey Jamie Mott is 9 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (28.1% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #4 Flying Mean here.
  • Jockey Patrick Moloney is 4 from 31 at today’s meeting profile (12.9% strike, A/E 1.42) and has #8 Noble Style here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 20 races (20 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)70630%8.6%0.63
Middle (5–9)87945%10.3%0.96
Wide (10+)56525%8.9%0.93

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)51525%9.8%0.62
On-pace (4–6)49630%12.2%0.97
Midfield (7–10)59525%8.5%0.98
Backmarkers (11+)2015%5%0.77
Unknown34315%8.8%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5210%40%0.69
Pop ($2–5)33735%21.2%0.72
Mid ($5–10)42630%14.3%1.03
Roughie (>$10)133525%3.8%0.86