Pakenham Synthetic R3

13:45Hygain Edge Mdn Plate
1400mMaidenRail: True
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Hygain Edge Mdn Platea 1400m maiden at Pakenham Synthetic, jumping at 13:45 on ground, rail true. 16 runners engaged.

At the trip

Pakenham Synthetic has staged 29 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 29 (48.3% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 7 of 29 each (24.1% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 22).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 11 of 29 (37.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 88 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 28 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.01 (14 from 125).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 7–10 again on top: A/E 0.96 (7 from 72).
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 1.18 (7 from 162).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Billy Egan × Patrick Payne are 16 from 65 (24.6%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #1 Brazen Warrior here.
  • Trainer T & C McEvoy: 26 from 147 (17.7%) in the last 90 days (11 of those in the last 30) — saddles #12 Insolence here.
  • Trainer G M Begg: 18 from 111 (16.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #18 Poetic Way here.
  • Jockey Teodore Nugent is 4 from 20 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 3.22) and has #13 Camegitchee here.
  • Jockey Jamie Mott is 9 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (28.1% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #5 Bellabama here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 29 races (29 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)102931%8.8%0.77
Middle (5–9)1291448.3%10.9%0.98
Wide (10+)75620.7%8%0.66

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)60724.1%11.7%0.87
On-pace (4–6)60620.7%10%0.78
Midfield (7–10)76724.1%9.2%0.92
Backmarkers (11+)2200%0%0.00
Unknown88931%10.2%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5310.3%60%1.00
Pop ($2–5)591137.9%18.6%0.68
Mid ($5–10)73827.6%11%0.83
Roughie (>$10)169724.1%4.1%1.13