Pakenham Synthetic R4

14:20Shanks Electrical Mdn Plate
1600mMaidenRail: True
Races123456789

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Shanks Electrical Mdn Platea 1600m maiden at Pakenham Synthetic, jumping at 14:20 on ground, rail true. 17 runners engaged.

At the trip

Pakenham Synthetic has staged 25 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 13 of 25 (52.0% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.58 (6 from 85).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 7 of 25 (28.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 12 of 25 (48.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.29).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 83 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 23 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.03 (12 from 96).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 11+ — A/E 1.52 (1 from 8); overall it's Settle position 1–3.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.35 (12 from 64).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Thomas Stockdale × M Price & M Kent Jnr are 5 from 26 (19.2%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #13 Shellfire here.
  • Trainer Patrick Payne: 36 from 189 (19.0%) in the last 90 days (18 of those in the last 30) — saddles #17 Achy Breaky Heart here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman: 6 from 35 (17.1%) in the last 30 days — saddles #6 Just Swift here.
  • Jockey Jamie Mott is 9 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (28.1% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #11 Frankel's Word here.
  • Jockey Patrick Moloney is 4 from 31 at today’s meeting profile (12.9% strike, A/E 1.42) and has #12 Choice Encounter here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 25 races (25 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)85624%7.1%0.58
Middle (5–9)1041352%12.5%1.00
Wide (10+)69624%8.7%0.84

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)51728%13.7%1.03
On-pace (4–6)51416%7.8%0.61
Midfield (7–10)64520%7.8%0.76
Backmarkers (11+)914%11.1%1.45
Unknown83832%9.6%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)628%33.3%0.56
Pop ($2–5)431040%23.3%0.90
Mid ($5–10)671248%17.9%1.29
Roughie (>$10)14214%0.7%0.15