Wagga R3

13:35Victoria Hotel Mdn Hcp
1400mMaidenRail: +8m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Victoria Hotel Mdn Hcpa 1400m maiden at Wagga, jumping at 13:35 on ground, rail +8m. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Wagga has staged 36 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 15 of 36 (41.7% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 13 of 36 (36.1% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.54 (5 from 97).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 18 of 36 (50.0% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (7 from 88).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 105 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers only 2 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Wide (10+) accounted for 2 of the 2 winners (2 from 10 runners, A/E 1.81) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Coriah Keatings × N J Olive are 7 from 36 (19.4%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Sontuoso here.
  • Trainer Michael Travers: 7 from 26 (26.9%) in the last 30 days — saddles #13 Second Witness here.
  • Trainer C D Widdison: 9 from 55 (16.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #12 Thesandmancan here.
  • Jockey Carly Frater is 5 from 42 at today’s meeting profile (11.9% strike, A/E 1.68) and has #9 Prized Gesture here.
  • Trainer Doug Gorrel is 10 from 71 at today’s meeting profile (14.1% strike, A/E 1.59) and has #4 My Mate Elvis here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 36 races (36 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1361233.3%8.8%0.72
Middle (5–9)1681541.7%8.9%0.83
Wide (10+)111925%8.1%0.97

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)891336.1%14.6%1.19
On-pace (4–6)75616.7%8%0.69
Midfield (7–10)97513.9%5.2%0.54
Backmarkers (11+)4925.6%4.1%0.66
Unknown1051027.8%9.5%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)612.8%16.7%0.28
Pop ($2–5)691850%26.1%0.95
Mid ($5–10)88719.4%8%0.57
Roughie (>$10)2521027.8%4%1.04