Ballarat Synthetic R2

13:45Global Turf Mdn Plate
2100mMaidenRail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Global Turf Mdn Platea 2100m maiden at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 13:45 on ground, rail true. 16 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 19 races at 2100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 9 of 19 (47.4% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.20 (4 from 31).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 6 of 19 each (31.6% win share); the value band has been Settle position 7–10 — A/E 1.25 (6 from 46).
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 7 of 19 (36.8% win share); Pop ($2–5) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (6 from 37).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 30 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 19 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.20 (4 from 31).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 7–10 again on top: A/E 1.25 (6 from 46).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.29 (3 from 4); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, John Allen × C Maher are 7 from 35 (20.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #1 Barossa Valley here.
  • Trainer G M Begg: 17 from 111 (15.3%) in the last 90 days — saddles #12 Representative here.
  • Jockey Fred W Kersley is 3 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (21.4% strike, A/E 1.36) and has #11 Miss Tempestas here.
  • Jockey Cian Macredmond is 10 from 101 at today’s meeting profile (9.9% strike, A/E 1.24) and has #4 Gaelic Kiwi here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
2100m · 19 races (19 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)68631.6%8.8%0.68
Middle (5–9)81947.4%11.1%0.83
Wide (10+)31421.1%12.9%1.20

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)48421.1%8.3%0.63
On-pace (4–6)48631.6%12.5%0.80
Midfield (7–10)46631.6%13%1.25
Backmarkers (11+)800%0%0.00
Unknown30315.8%10%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)4315.8%75%1.29
Pop ($2–5)37631.6%16.2%0.57
Mid ($5–10)43736.8%16.3%1.16
Roughie (>$10)96315.8%3.1%0.75