Ballarat Synthetic R4

14:55Manhari (Bm56)
1000mBenchmark 56Rail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Manhari (Bm56)a 1000m benchmark 56 at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 14:55 on ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 38 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) and Middle (5–9) win the most races here — 17 of 38 each (44.7% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.29 (4 from 32).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 22 of 38 (57.9% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (4 from 81).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 23 of 38 (60.5% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.60 (6 from 74).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 38 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.29 (4 from 32).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 11+ again on top: A/E 1.56 (1 from 11).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 0.99 (23 from 76).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Chelsea Thompson: 9 from 57 (15.8%) in the last 90 days — rides #6 Del Lirenza here.
  • Jockey Brad Rawiller: 27 from 177 (15.3%) in the last 90 days — rides #2 Bring The Thunder here.
  • Trainer T & C McEvoy: 26 from 146 (17.8%) in the last 90 days (10 of those in the last 30) — saddles #6 Del Lirenza here.
  • Trainer Rodney Foster is 2 from 24 at today’s meeting profile (8.3% strike, A/E 1.29) and has #9 Fugacity here.
  • Jockey Zac Moore is 3 from 15 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.20) and has #4 Tennessee Spirit here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 38 races (38 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1441744.7%11.8%0.81
Middle (5–9)1471744.7%11.6%0.81
Wide (10+)32410.5%12.5%1.29

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1082257.9%20.4%1.03
On-pace (4–6)105923.7%8.6%0.64
Midfield (7–10)81410.5%4.9%0.57
Backmarkers (11+)1112.6%9.1%1.56
Unknown1825.3%11.1%0.88

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)8513.2%62.5%0.96
Pop ($2–5)762360.5%30.3%0.99
Mid ($5–10)74615.8%8.1%0.60
Roughie (>$10)165410.5%2.4%0.60