Ballarat Synthetic R7

16:45Hygain Edge (Bm56)
1400mBenchmark 56Rail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Hygain Edge (Bm56)a 1400m benchmark 56 at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 16:45 on ground, rail true. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 31 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 31 (45.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 13 of 31 (41.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 20 of 31 (64.5% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.49 (3 from 162).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 31 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.90 (5 from 47).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 0.90 (9 from 77).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.16 (20 from 58).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey John Allen: 13 from 74 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Docinthe here.
  • Jockey Chelsea Thompson: 9 from 57 (15.8%) in the last 90 days — rides #7 Dark Harmony here.
  • Trainer Nick Ryan: 14 from 76 (18.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Blacklip here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman: 6 from 36 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #3 Docinthe here.
  • Jockey Cian Macredmond is 10 from 101 at today’s meeting profile (9.9% strike, A/E 1.24) and has #11 Secretdream here.
  • Jockey Zac Moore is 3 from 15 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.20) and has #1 Validated here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 31 races (31 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1121445.2%12.5%0.86
Middle (5–9)1251238.7%9.6%0.78
Wide (10+)47516.1%10.6%0.90

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)811341.9%16%0.87
On-pace (4–6)77929%11.7%0.90
Midfield (7–10)71516.1%7%0.73
Backmarkers (11+)1300%0%0.00
Unknown42412.9%9.5%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)11412.9%36.4%0.58
Pop ($2–5)582064.5%34.5%1.16
Mid ($5–10)53412.9%7.5%0.58
Roughie (>$10)16239.7%1.9%0.49