HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Ballarat SyntheticTuesday 7 July 2026

Ballarat Synthetic R1

13:10Brandt Mdn Plate
1500mMaidenRail: True
StatisticsRace Analysis
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Brandt Mdn Plate — a 1500m maiden at Ballarat Synthetic, jumping at 13:10 on — ground, rail true. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat Synthetic has staged 34 races at 1500m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 34 (41.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 13 of 34 (38.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 13 of 34 (38.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 34 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.87 (8 from 80).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 7–10 again on top: A/E 0.92 (8 from 102).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.60 (8 from 9); overall it's Mid ($5–10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Teodore Nugent × C Maher are 4 from 11 (36.4%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #4 Always Free here.
  • Jockey John Allen: 13 from 74 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #2 Egerton Reef here.
  • Trainer Tom Dabernig: 10 from 60 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #3 Flying Capital here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman: 6 from 36 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #9 Just Swift here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1500m · 34 races (34 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1151235.3%10.4%0.83
Middle (5–9)1461441.2%9.6%0.83
Wide (10+)80823.5%10%0.87

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)961338.2%13.5%0.82
On-pace (4–6)941029.4%10.6%0.84
Midfield (7–10)102823.5%7.8%0.92
Backmarkers (11+)2912.9%3.4%0.68
Unknown2025.9%10%0.75

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)9823.5%88.9%1.60
Pop ($2–5)631338.2%20.6%0.69
Mid ($5–10)69823.5%11.6%0.85
Roughie (>$10)200514.7%2.5%0.68