Ipswich R3

13:39Living Turf Hcp
800mOpenRail: +8m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 7 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Living Turf Hcpa 800m open at Ipswich, jumping at 13:39 on ground, rail +8m. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ipswich has staged 37 races at 800m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 20 of 37 (54.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 23 of 37 (62.2% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.20).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 21 of 37 (56.8% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.15 (1 from 154).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 81 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers only 6 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Settle position 1–3 accounted for 4 of the 6 winners (4 from 12 runners, A/E 1.46) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Ben E Thompson: 45 from 301 (15.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #11 Queen Olympias here.
  • Trainer Pat W Webster: 13 from 77 (16.9%) in the last 90 days — saddles #2 Laurels here.
  • Trainer K R Kemp is 6 from 53 at today’s meeting profile (11.3% strike, A/E 1.27) and has #10 Too Darn Quick, #13 Feel Blessed here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
800m · 37 races (37 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1422054.1%14.1%0.82
Middle (5–9)1301540.5%11.5%0.90
Wide (10+)2525.4%8%0.65

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)852362.2%27.1%1.20
On-pace (4–6)78513.5%6.4%0.43
Midfield (7–10)5100%0%0.00
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown81924.3%11.1%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)11821.6%72.7%1.15
Pop ($2–5)752156.8%28%0.90
Mid ($5–10)57718.9%12.3%0.94
Roughie (>$10)15412.7%0.6%0.15

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.