Moruya R3

13:10Cobargo Hotel Mdn Hcp
1210mMaidenRail: +2m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Cobargo Hotel Mdn Hcpa 1210m maiden at Moruya, jumping at 13:10 on ground, rail +2m. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Moruya has staged 24 races at 1210m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 11 of 24 (45.8% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.56 (7 from 103).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 24 (37.5% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 20).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 24 (41.7% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 70 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+2m ±1m) covers only 6 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 3 of the 6 winners (3 from 9 runners, A/E 1.12) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jean Van Overmeire: 34 from 192 (17.7%) in the last 90 days (12 of those in the last 30) — rides #5 Zougotme here.
  • Jockey Pierre Boudvillain: 12 from 64 (18.8%) in the last 30 days — rides #12 Mogo Rock here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter: 21 from 108 (19.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Pariah Time here.
  • Trainer Joseph Ible is 2 from 12 at today’s meeting profile (16.7% strike, A/E 1.39) and has #11 Argantorati here.
  • Jockey Louise Day is 2 from 16 at today’s meeting profile (12.5% strike, A/E 1.25) and has #11 Argantorati here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1210m · 24 races (24 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)931145.8%11.8%0.93
Middle (5–9)103729.2%6.8%0.56
Wide (10+)59625%10.2%1.16

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)54937.5%16.7%0.90
On-pace (4–6)53729.2%13.2%1.17
Midfield (7–10)5828.3%3.4%0.45
Backmarkers (11+)2000%0%0.00
Unknown70625%8.6%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5312.5%60%0.98
Pop ($2–5)391041.7%25.6%0.91
Mid ($5–10)63625%9.5%0.67
Roughie (>$10)148520.8%3.4%0.78

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.