Moruya R6

15:05One Tree In Tuross (Bm66)
1020mBenchmark 66Rail: +2m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

One Tree In Tuross (Bm66)a 1020m benchmark 66 at Moruya, jumping at 15:05 on ground, rail +2m. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Moruya has staged 25 races at 1020m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 15 of 25 (60.0% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 31).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 14 of 25 (56.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.29).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 25 (56.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.19 (1 from 124).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 60 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+2m ±1m) covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Inside (1–4) accounted for 4 of the 7 winners (4 from 27 runners, A/E 1.03) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Brodie Loy: 23 from 113 (20.4%) in the last 90 days — rides #4 Big Opinion here.
  • Jockey Jean Van Overmeire: 34 from 192 (17.7%) in the last 90 days (12 of those in the last 30) — rides #2 Sparklenglitter here.
  • Trainer Natalie Jarvis: 6 from 28 (21.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #12 Abstruse here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter: 21 from 108 (19.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Denial here.
  • Trainer J Rolfe is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 2.16) and has #6 Arctic Desert here.
  • Jockey Louise Day is 2 from 16 at today’s meeting profile (12.5% strike, A/E 1.25) and has #10 Vereeva here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1020m · 25 races (25 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)971560%15.5%1.01
Middle (5–9)1051040%9.5%0.79
Wide (10+)3100%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)571456%24.6%1.29
On-pace (4–6)5728%3.5%0.30
Midfield (7–10)55312%5.5%0.56
Backmarkers (11+)400%0%0.00
Unknown60624%10%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5312%60%1.04
Pop ($2–5)591456%23.7%0.87
Mid ($5–10)45728%15.6%1.12
Roughie (>$10)12414%0.8%0.19

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.