Scone R1

12:15Muswellbrook Regional Gallery Mdn Plate
1600mMaidenRail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Muswellbrook Regional Gallery Mdn Platea 1600m maiden at Scone, jumping at 12:15 on ground, rail true. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Scone has staged 23 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 10 of 23 (43.5% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.55 (6 from 102).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 7 of 23 each (30.4% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.41 (1 from 39).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 23 (43.5% win share); the value band has been Mid ($5–10) — A/E 1.21 (8 from 49).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 12 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.01 (3 from 38).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 0.96 (4 from 30).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.74 (5 from 21).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Aaron Bullock × P Messara & L Gavranich are 10 from 25 (40.0%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #9 Joika here.
  • Together, Izzy Neale × S I Singleton are 4 from 10 (40.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #5 King Of Many here.
  • Jockey L P Beuzelin: 6 from 33 (18.2%) in the last 90 days — rides #2 Caribbean Thunder here.
  • Jockey Mikayla Weir: 15 from 86 (17.4%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Royal Princess here.
  • Trainer Ms J Clement: 22 from 118 (18.6%) in the last 90 days — saddles #6 Minister Garrett here.
  • Trainer G Waterhouse & A Bott: 31 from 204 (15.2%) in the last 90 days (10 of those in the last 30) — saddles #1 Audaciously Frank, #2 Caribbean Thunder here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 23 races (23 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)801043.5%12.5%0.93
Middle (5–9)102626.1%5.9%0.55
Wide (10+)80730.4%8.8%1.09

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)63730.4%11.1%0.94
On-pace (4–6)63626.1%9.5%0.78
Midfield (7–10)75730.4%9.3%0.86
Backmarkers (11+)3914.3%2.6%0.41
Unknown2228.7%9.1%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7313%42.9%0.70
Pop ($2–5)361043.5%27.8%0.96
Mid ($5–10)49834.8%16.3%1.21
Roughie (>$10)17028.7%1.2%0.29

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.