Scone R2

12:50Magic Millions Mdn Hcp
1200mMaidenRail: True
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Magic Millions Mdn Hcpa 1200m maiden at Scone, jumping at 12:50 on ground, rail true. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Scone has staged 20 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 9 of 20 (45.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 7 of 20 (35.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 20 (60.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.43 (2 from 124).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 42 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 11 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Inside (1–4) — A/E 0.89 (5 from 41); overall it's Wide (10+).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 1.23 (4 from 24); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.11 (8 from 23).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Aaron Bullock × P Messara & L Gavranich are 10 from 25 (40.0%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #2 Heathcliff here.
  • Jockey Mikayla Weir: 15 from 86 (17.4%) in the last 30 days — rides #12 Poiema here.
  • Jockey Olivia Dalton: 8 from 47 (17.0%) in the last 30 days — rides #11 Meteor Mist here.
  • Jockey Shannen Llewellyn is 3 from 44 at today’s meeting profile (6.8% strike, A/E 1.71) and has #5 Count Du Money here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 20 races (20 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)74945%12.2%0.90
Middle (5–9)86735%8.1%0.68
Wide (10+)38420%10.5%0.99

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)48630%12.5%0.77
On-pace (4–6)47735%14.9%1.08
Midfield (7–10)48315%6.2%0.65
Backmarkers (11+)1300%0%0.00
Unknown42420%9.5%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7315%42.9%0.65
Pop ($2–5)381260%31.6%1.06
Mid ($5–10)29315%10.3%0.80
Roughie (>$10)124210%1.6%0.43

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.