HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← NewcastleSaturday 11 July 2026

Newcastle R7

15:05East Maitland Bowling Club (Bm64)
1600mBenchmark 64Rail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

East Maitland Bowling Club (Bm64) — a 1600m benchmark 64 at Newcastle, jumping at 15:05 on — ground, rail true. 21 runners engaged.

At the trip

Newcastle has staged 24 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 12 of 24 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 7 of 24 (29.2% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 24 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 8 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Middle (5–9) — A/E 0.94 (5 from 40); overall it's Wide (10+).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 11+ again on top: A/E 2.28 (2 from 11).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.22 (5 from 14).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey L P Beuzelin: 6 from 34 (17.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #14 Otono here.
  • Jockey Keagan Latham: 23 from 128 (18.0%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — rides #7 Fierceness here.
  • Trainer Bjorn Baker: 33 from 198 (16.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #9 My Shareena here.
  • Trainer G Ryan & S Alexiou: 6 from 38 (15.8%) in the last 30 days — saddles #5 Costabit here.
  • Jockey Leeshelle Small is 4 from 28 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 1.61) and has #12 Ballinderry Sal here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 24 races (24 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)92937.5%9.8%0.73
Middle (5–9)1061250%11.3%0.89
Wide (10+)32312.5%9.4%0.91

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)63625%9.5%0.70
On-pace (4–6)63729.2%11.1%0.75
Midfield (7–10)63625%9.5%1.00
Backmarkers (11+)1828.3%11.1%1.29
Unknown23312.5%13%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)6416.7%66.7%1.17
Pop ($2–5)491250%24.5%0.87
Mid ($5–10)46416.7%8.7%0.65
Roughie (>$10)129416.7%3.1%0.70

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.