Newcastle R9

16:20Toronto Workers Club Conditional (Bm68)
1400mBenchmark 68Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Toronto Workers Club Conditional (Bm68)a 1400m benchmark 68 at Newcastle, jumping at 16:20 on ground, rail true. 15 runners engaged.

At the trip

Newcastle has staged 49 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 21 of 49 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 19 of 49 (38.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 24 of 49 (49.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 13 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.29 (2 from 16).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 7–10 again on top: A/E 1.00 (4 from 45).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.30 (8 from 21).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey L P Beuzelin: 6 from 34 (17.6%) in the last 90 days — rides #9 Stormbringer here.
  • Jockey Keagan Latham: 23 from 128 (18.0%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — rides #5 Three Arrows here.
  • Trainer Tom Charlton: 8 from 34 (23.5%) in the last 30 days — saddles #5 Three Arrows here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter: 21 from 112 (18.8%) in the last 90 days — saddles #11 Tillstrom here.
  • Jockey Leeshelle Small is 4 from 28 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 1.61) and has #12 Spiv here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 49 races (49 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1662142.9%12.7%0.84
Middle (5–9)1912040.8%10.5%0.80
Wide (10+)63816.3%12.7%0.86

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1411938.8%13.5%0.77
On-pace (4–6)1381836.7%13%0.85
Midfield (7–10)1101020.4%9.1%0.99
Backmarkers (11+)1500%0%0.00
Unknown1624.1%12.5%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)15612.2%40%0.68
Pop ($2–5)902449%26.7%0.92
Mid ($5–10)1071224.5%11.2%0.80
Roughie (>$10)208714.3%3.4%0.76

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.