Good Intent Hotel Showcase Plate (C1) — a 2220m class 1 at Grafton, jumping at 12:20 on — ground, rail +3m. 10 runners engaged.
At the trip
Grafton has staged 20 races at 2220m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) and Middle (5–9) win the most races here — 8 of 20 each (40.0% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.31 (4 from 41).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 20 (45.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.28).
- Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 8 of 20 (40.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 36 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Wide (10+) accounted for 2 of the 5 winners (2 from 16 runners, A/E 2.16) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Jockey Jean Van Overmeire: 36 from 206 (17.5%) in the last 90 days (14 of those in the last 30) — rides #7 Smokey Saint here.
- Jockey Mikayla Weir: 14 from 88 (15.9%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Kiss'n Dance here.