Holiday Coast Meats Showcase Hcp (C3) — a 1410m class 3 at Grafton, jumping at 15:00 on — ground, rail +3m. 15 runners engaged.
At the trip
Grafton has staged 37 races at 1410m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 19 of 37 (51.4% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (4 from 85).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 17 of 37 (45.9% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.32 (3 from 109).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 17 of 37 (45.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 5 of the 7 winners (5 from 32 runners, A/E 1.33) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Jockey Nash Rawiller: 27 from 122 (22.1%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #1 Think Like Paddy here.
- Jockey Harrison Shaw: 7 from 36 (19.4%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #3 Jukebox In Siberia here.