Grafton Toyota ****big Dance Eligiblity*** South Grafton Qlty Cup — a 1610m open at Grafton, jumping at 15:40 on — ground, rail +3m. 17 runners engaged.
At the trip
Grafton has staged 13 races at 1610m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.
- Barrier draw: Wide (10+) wins the most races here — 5 of 13 (38.5% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.49).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 4 of 13 (30.8% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.60 (2 from 37).
- Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 6 of 13 (46.2% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.21).
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 37 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Settle position 4–6 accounted for 2 of the 5 winners (2 from 12 runners, A/E 1.82) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Together, Aaron Bullock × P Messara & L Gavranich are 13 from 29 (44.8%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #4 Know Thyself here.
- Jockey Nash Rawiller: 27 from 122 (22.1%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #3 Kronenbourg here.
- Jockey Jean Van Overmeire: 36 from 206 (17.5%) in the last 90 days (14 of those in the last 30) — rides #22 Winning Point here.
- Trainer Tom Charlton: 8 from 37 (21.6%) in the last 30 days — saddles #10 Mr Chaplin here.
- Trainer Bjorn Baker: 33 from 203 (16.3%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 War Eternal, #2 Midnight Dynamite, #7 Hollywood Hero here.